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"【环球网综合报道】世界的半导体行情已开始显现出源自中国的波动迹象。《日本经济新闻》4月24日报道称,加紧推进半导体国产化的中国已全面启动设备投资,预计最早将在2018年底开始向市场供应尖端产品三维NAND型闪存芯片。曾在液晶面板等众多产业出现的中国产品供给过剩也可能在半导体领域引发价格下跌。

中国推进尖端产品量产
“2-3年前我们根本不相信(中国企业)能顺利推进,但现在感觉不一样了”,日本大型半导体制造设备厂商爱德万测试(AdvantestCorporation)的销售负责人难掩吃惊。中国大型国有半导体企业紫光集团旗下的长江存储科技在湖北省武汉市推进的三维NAND的量产项目,爱德万测试的销售负责人称“估计将在2018年底到2019年迅速实现量产”。
三维NAND被应用于智能手机和数据中心的存储装置。与传统的平面产品相比,每一枚芯片的存储容量大大增加。虽然中国计划量产的产品与世界最尖端的三维NAND相比还存在距离,不过据称试制品的成品率正在不断提高。
中国在2015年公布的“中国制造2025”战略中提出培育半导体产业。对于在电子设备制造领域握有很高份额的中国来说,半导体是最主要的进口产品。改善贸易收支离不开半导体自给率的提高。
为此,中国地方政府竞相利用补贴等优惠政策吸引国内外的外半导体相关企业。将在杭州市新设晶圆工厂的日本半导体企业FerrotecHoldingsCorporation就表示“受到了多地市政府的邀请”。
国际半导体设备与材料协会(SEMI)预测,2018年中国的半导体制造设备市场规模将同比增长4成,增至113亿美元。从包含外资厂商的中国工厂的这一数据来看,中国的市场规模将跃升至全球第2,仅次于韩国,占据整体市场的2成。
不仅如此,如今甚至已经出现依赖于中国企业稳定供货的半导体产品。那就是NAND的上一代产品、搭载于家电和汽车的NOR型闪存。由于面向汽车和有机EL面板的需求扩大,“中国的代工企业成为各方争夺的‘香饽饽’”(半导体商社的营业负责人)。
在智能手机需求下滑等背景下,当前NAND的行情表现疲软。不过每年的年初一向是需求下滑的时期。不少观点认为,到了启动年底商战用智能手机零部件采购的2018年夏季前后,NAND将再次陷入缺货状态。
那么前景如何呢?英国调查公司IHSMarkit首席分析师南川明表示“2020年以后的NAND供需取决于长江存储科技”。如果将该公司的计划全部计算进去,最早将在2021年出现供大于求。预计容量256GB的NAND价格在2019年-2021年每年将以约2-3成的速度下跌。也就是说,2017年平均单价7美元的价格预计到2021年将降至2.4美元。
中国旺盛的内需也将有助于半导体产业的培育。预计继智能手机之后,数据中心将成为下一个快速增长的市场。继北美IT巨头之后,腾讯和阿里巴巴集团等中国企业正在扩大投资。
中国掌握定价主导权的时代将至
很多人认为长江存储“目前仅限于供应低端产品”。该公司还面临如何确保技术人员等课题。
不过,在中国制造商份额扩大的中小尺寸液晶面板市场,当初也是以面向中国智能手机厂商的低端产品为中心开始普及。如今,日韩制造商具有优势的高精细产品与中国产品的价格差已缩小到1成左右。
眼下出现的中美贸易摩擦,半导体也成长沙算命最准的大师2018年内涵好听的宝宝名字大全为焦点。如果中国为避免与美国发生摩擦而增加半导体进口,将不利于半导体国产化进程。
在钢铁、石化产品、光伏面板等领域,由于中国巨额投资导致市场行情崩溃晋州市算命最准的大师属相狗的吉利名字大全的情况屡见不鲜。也有中国半导体材料制造商表示会吸取以往经验教训,“不会盲目华阴市算命最准的大师如何用八字起名精准八字起名的方法销售半导体,导致供需失衡”。但从供需两个层面来看,可能会迎来中国掌握定价主导权的时代。"
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呵呵,好帖,好好看看












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既然看了,顶一个吧,好帖子
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